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Should We Believe the Polls?

That is the million dollar question we Americans should be asking ourselves. In 2016, virtually every poll predicted Hillary Clinton as the winner of the election, yet Donald Trump prevailed. The best guess for this surprise: the Electoral College. Clinton won the popular vote by approximately 3 million votes: however, Trump won in key states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, MIchigan, and Iowa.

Back to the 2020 election: Yes, the polls predict Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will take the reigns from Donald Trump and Mike Pence, but in some swing states, the difference in percentage is small. According to 270toWin, a polling website, Biden is expected win in Arizona (3.4%), Florida (2.6%), Iowa (1.3%), Pennsylvania 4.7%), and in Michigan (6.8%) to name a few. Trump is expected to win in Ohio (0.2%), Texas (2.8%), Kentucky (17.0%), Nebraska (8.0%), and in Tennessee (18.0%).

Take a look at Ohio- it is predicted to be a near tie between Biden and Trump. This is an epitome as to why everyone needs to vote in this election. The stakes could not be higher. Even in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania for instance, the race is really tight (less than 5% difference). As we learned in the last election, polls do not always predict the correct outcome.

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